­­Coffee Talk – Spilling the Beans on Coffee Trends

THE COFFEE MARKET IS PERCOLATING

Coffee trends are brewing. According to Mordor Intelligence¹, the global coffee market is valued at $132.1 billion in 2024 and will reach $166.4 billion by 2029. 4 in 5 coffee drinkers (81%) say that coffee motivates them to get out of bed in the morning, according to a survey of 2,000 U.S. adults conducted by OnePoll on behalf of BUNN². Similarly, Drive Research³ revealed that 87% of Americans consider themselves somewhat or full-on coffee-obsessed. 2 in 3 Americans (66%) make coffee at home every day, while 89% make it at home at least once a week. According to Circana⁴, $36 billion was spent on coffee servings last year, with a 5% year-over-year growth globally, outpacing the 3% in the U.S. The study showed growth in 11 of the 12* countries tracked. China experienced the highest coffee consumption growth rate, while South Korea did not experience any growth. In China, cold coffee consumption grew at a CAGR of 20% between 2019 and 2023 and was 33% of total coffee consumption. Dessert-inspired flavors, cold brew, collaborations, plant-based formulas, coffee-based alcoholic beverages, and flavored creamers are on trend.

COFFEE CONSUMPTION

As recorded by Circana⁴, coffee consumption is on the rise. According to the National Coffee Association (NCA)⁵, 67% of American adults had coffee in the past day, compared to 49% in 2004. 75% of American adults have had coffee in the past week, up 4% since 2023.

Research from the Spring 2024 National Coffee Data Trends revealed:

Coffee Demographics:

• Past-day consumption by 18–24-year-olds held steady at 47%
• Consumers aged 25–39 past-day coffee consumption increased by 4.5% (from 67% to 70%)
• Consumers aged 40–59 past-day coffee consumption rose by 4.5% (from 66% to 69%)
• Consumers 60+ past-day consumption increased by 9% (from 67% to 73%)

Specialty Coffee:

• 57% of American adults had a specialty coffee in the past week, up by 7.5% year-on-year
• Past-week consumption grew the most for espresso-based beverages, up by 10%
• 18% of American adults enjoyed lattes in the past week followed by espresso (16%), and cappuccinos (14%)

Coffee Preparation:

• Drip coffee makers (37%) and single-cup brewers (28%) continue to be the top two at home preparation methods
• Ready-To-Drink (RTD) is the third most popular preparation among past-day coffee drinkers, nearly doubling from 8% to 15%
• Espresso machines are fourth place for coffee preparation

Additionally, Drive Research’s³ U.S. coffee study of 1,300 people uncovered:

Roast Preferences:

• 49% of Americans prefer medium roast coffee appreciating its balanced flavor and aroma
• 28% lean toward the bold and robust profile of dark roast
• 12% opt for the milder and more nuanced flavors of light roast
• Only 11% of coffee drinkers have no specific roast preference

Reasons For Drinking Coffee:

• 83% of consumers drink coffee because they like the way it tastes
• 67% feel coffee gives them energy
• 43% believe coffee increases their productivity
• 29% drink coffee because of its perceived health benefits
• 20% drink coffee because it suppresses their appetite

THE RISE IN COLD COFFEE

As seen from NCA’s research⁵, coffee consumption varies by generation. Coffee consumption is starting at a younger age compared to previous generations. A Mintel⁶ study found that consumers currently aged 18-24 first began drinking coffee at an average age of 15.

Mintel⁷ reports that usage among the younger demographic is growing:

• 57% of Gen Z consumers first regularly drink cold coffee beverages vs. a lower number for hot coffee on first consumption⁸
• 26% of teens consume cold coffee, and the trend continues with U.S. Gen Z aged 18+
• In the U.S. a combined 64% of adult coffee consumers say their teenage children (aged 12-17) are drinking coffee compared to 36% whose teens are not drinking coffee

NielsenIQ’s data⁹ showed that cold brew coffee is often seen as a healthier alternative because it has less acidity and less caffeine than traditional coffee. These two factors drive exploration and innovation in the RTD market. For example, Nestlé’s proprietary research¹⁰ found that cold coffee is one of the fastest growing in the coffee industry, with a 15% consumption increase in the past four years. The brand calculates that in 2023, 32% of the coffee consumed out of home was cold – the equivalent of one in every three cups. To bring “the out of home cold coffee experience” to consumers, in Australia, Nestlé debuted Espresso Concentrate in two liquid flavors: Sweet Vanilla and Espresso Black. Similarly, Starbucks added two new flavors to its Cold Brew Concentrates line: Dark Chocolate Hazelnut and Sweetened Black.

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RTD IS PERCOLATING

RTD coffee is offered in various flavors and is convenient for individuals on the go. The U.S. RTD coffee market is estimated to achieve $6.46 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $8.61 billion by 2029 with a 6% CAGR, according to Mordor Intelligence¹¹. Starbucks pioneered sweet, dessert-like coffee flavors. For example, Drive Research³ showed that 48% of Americans enjoy Starbucks coffee, while 45% enjoy Dunkin’. It’s no surprise that the younger demographics gravitate towards sweet RTD coffee beverages.

Dessert-inspired flavors, collaborations, and plant-based ingredients are driving RTD coffee innovation. For example, Chameleon partnered with the Girl Scouts of the USA on three cookie-inspired cold brew coffees: Chocolate Peanut Butter, Coconut Caramel, and Thin Mint. Monster Energy took a different approach and introduced Java Monster Irish Crème. For the summer, Dutch Bros launched the Churro Freeze, which features blended caramel coffee with cinnamon sugar Soft Top and churro bits. Plant-based Pop & Bottle launched an Organic Cold Brew Coffee range while plant-based pistachio brand Táche added a RTD Pistachio Milk Latte to its portfolio. A notable invention¹² is by an Australian team of researchers at the University of New South Wales who used ultrasound technology to speed up the cold brew process from 12-24 hours to 3 minutes. Margaret Nyamumbo, founder of Kahawa 1893 Coffee, states “In 2024, we’ll see consumers embrace coffee in new ways, including new flavor profiles that have traditionally not been associated with coffee. We are moving beyond the purity of coffee into a new playground for coffee, spearheaded by Gen Z and the desire for new ways to enjoy coffee.”

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ESPRESSO MARTINIS ARE HAVING A MOMENT

Alcoholic beverages and mocktails in RTD formats are taking off. Espresso martinis are having a moment. According to Tastewise¹³, social conversations about Espresso Martini have increased by 15.93% over the past year. Drive Research’s data³ found that 1 in 4 Americans likes to drink espresso martinis – a 79% increase from 2022. Bacardi’s Cocktail Trends Report 2024¹⁴ ranked the espresso martini as number 16 of the top 20 bar calls. Additionally, 45% of bartenders expressed interest in or wanted to experiment with coffee/espresso flavors. Overall across off-premise, espresso martini RTDs were up 252% in dollar sales for the latest 52 weeks ending December 30, 2023, versus the previous year, while cold brew cocktail styles were up 13.9%, according to NIQ data¹⁵.

The market is flooded with creative espresso martini interpretations. For example, Gen Z influencers Kendall Jenner and Emma Chamberlain collaborated on a limited edition Espresso Martini Kit, which featured a bottle of 818’s tequila and Pecan Cold Brew instant coffee packets. Crystal Head launched a canned Espresso Martini, which blends Crystal Head’s Original vodka with nitro-brewed coffee, natural chocolate flavor, and agave as the sweetener. Milan-based NIO Cocktails, which stands for “needs ice only,” released a line of four Ready-To-Serve cocktails centered around coffee and tea. The Cold Brew Negroni contains Tanqueray London Dry Gin, Cocchi Storico Vermouth Di Torino, and Mr. Black Cold Brew Coffee Liqueur. The Revolver blends Bulleit Bourbon Whisky, Bols Creme de Cacao Brown, Mr. Black Cold Brew Coffee Liqueur, and Angostura Bitter Aromatic. In retail, Starbucks Reserve Roasteries and New York, Chicago, and Seattle stores introduced two Hot Honey beverages made with wildflower honey infused with premium chili peppers. The Hot Honey Espresso Martini features hot honey with Ancho Reyes Chile Liqueur, Starbucks Reserve Espresso, Kalak Single Malt Vodka, and vanilla syrup topped with a sweet and spicy cold foam and black sesame seeds. The Hot Honey Affogato highlights hot honey with Starbucks Reserve Espresso, Scrappy’s Bitters, vanilla gelato, and an Amarena cherry.

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FLAVORED CREAMERS

Black coffee is falling by the wayside as flavored coffee creamers, both dairy and plant-based experience growth. According to Drive Research ³, males are 2.4 times more likely to drink black coffee than females. However, 61% of males and 81% of females like their coffee the most with at least milk or creamer. Furthermore, 77% of people put milk or creamer in their coffee – with almond and oat milk preferences on the rise. Preferences for oat milk grew by 90%, and preferences for almond milk grew by 71% since 2022. The U.S. coffee creamer market is estimated at $27 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $32.57 billion by 2029 with a CAGR of 3.82%, according to Mordor Intelligence¹⁶. The Good Food Institute¹⁷ reported that U.S. sales of plant-based creamers reached $701 million in 2023, a 10% increase from 2022.

The popularity of coffee culture, sweet specialty drinks, and the innovation of new flavors have contributed to the growth of creamers. Mintel’s research¹⁸ found that 60% of home coffee drinkers aged 18-54 use flavored creamers. Emerging flavors such as waffle, cinnamon bun, cookie, and gingerbread are of interest. 51% of consumers use generic coffee creamers such as Coffee-Mate or International Delight, according to Drive Research ³. Like coffee, brands are launching new products and flavors. For example, Belle is a new dairy-based coffee creamer brand by Darigold offered in four flavors: Caramel, Hazelnut Latte, Sweet Cream, and Vanilla. Made with five ingredients including real cream, the products are lactose free and do not contain oils or fillers. Known for collaborations, International Delight launched International Delight Reese’s Iced Coffee in a can in partnership with The Hershey Co. The brand also debuted an innovative application, a Cold Foam Creamer packaged in a can like whipped cream. Dunkin’ introduced Dunkin’ Salted Caramel Creamer in partnership with Danone North America. Califia Farms added Cookies ‘N Crème Almond Creamer to its lineup. Oatly Oatmilk Creamers joined the brand’s portfolio in four classic flavors: Caramel, Mocha, Sweet & Creamy, and Vanilla. Laird Superfood released a Sweet & Creamy Protein Creamer that features a blend of plant proteins, medium-chain triglycerides (MCTS) from coconuts, and its Performance Mushroom Blend, including chaga, lion’s mane, maitake, and cordyceps for enhanced functionality.

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COFFEE CULTURE

Drinking coffee is often seen as a ritual and a social experience. The beloved staple is a global phenomenon. Coffee is steadily growing and evolving as the younger generation joins coffee culture. For now, RTD, cold brew, collaborations, plant-based formulas, coffee-based alcoholic beverages, and flavored creamers are on trend. “We are currently in the fifth [coffee] wave, where the focus is on experiential and business aspects of coffee. This wave integrates technological advancements with traditional brewing techniques, creating new products and experiences that cater to a tech-savvy consumer base – Millennials and Gen Z,” states GourmetPro¹⁹. For example, Millennial and Gen X consumers want functional benefits, with over a quarter saying they would try a new coffee beverage if it offered functional benefits, according to Mintel ⁸. From new technology to capture coffee’s complex flavor to sustainable coffee without coffee beans such as precision fermentation and cellular agriculture, innovation is brewing in coffee. Let Trilogy quench your customers’ thirst for innovative coffee beverage flavors. Contact us today and request your samples here.